Work package 13: Scenario Analyses
The three different ecological and economical models created in WPs 8, 9 and 10 will be used to evaluate the consequences of different management scenarios. Scenarios will be defined based on different real-to-life management regimes for beech forests, based broadly on different scales and patterns of cutting. The regimes will be based on nature-based and traditional management systems as defined by WPs 1, 2 and 11. Management of beech forests differs also widely among European countries and among the countries represented in the Nat-Man consortium as a consequence of different natural growth conditions and economical conditions. Three regions along the gradient from north-western (Denmark, The Netherlands, United Kingdom) over central (Germany) to south-eastern Europe (Hungary, Slovenia) will be chosen for scenario analyses. Three case studies, one within each region will be carefully selected to run each model on, thus representing typical beech forest management regimes in Europe.
The combined ecological and economical responses will be predicted at the stand, forest and landscape level. The gap regeneration model will evaluate the consequences of the management systems on tree regeneration, CWD biodiversity and nutrients at the stand level. The landscape model will evaluate the large-scale consequences on tree regeneration and CWD biodiversity. The microeconomics model will evaluate the profitability of both marketable and non-marketable items at the forest level. The three different models will be linked across scales so that the responses at all levels can be described and compared.
A list of potential problems of nature-based forestry will be complied in consultation with end-users from the three different regions chosen for scenario analyses. The following subjects have been anticipated and could be addressed by the models: the conversion of even-aged beech forests, the species composition of nature-based managed forests, the size of gaps and likely type and quality of natural regeneration, the amount of dead wood to be retained and possible compensation rates, the costs of management measures to increase biodiversity or ground water resources. Scenario results will be input to the management guidelines and policy recommendations in WP 14.
Andreas Brunner, Danish Forest and Landscape Research Institute (DFLRI)
Hørsholm Kongevej 11, DK-2970 Hørsholm, DENMARK, Fax: (+45) 4576 3233, phone (+45) 4517 8311, e-mail: